Tuesday, March 02, 2004

Super Tuesday

Today is Super Tuesday, otherwise known as Edwards' last stand. Today, voters will head to the polls in 10 states. Three of the biggest prizes today are California, New York and Ohio. As of daybreak, the polls showed that Senator Kerry had a lead in every single state. But, they are going to count the votes, so we will have to wait until tonight to see how things shake out. If the polls hold true and Kerry wins all 10 states, Edwards needs to be close in all the states. This would allow Edwards to still collect a significant number of delegates. However, some pundits say that if Edwards fails to get an outright victory in a single state then the North Carolina senator should start thinking seriously about getting out of the race.

On a side note, comeback victories are more difficult in Democratic primaries than in Republican primaries. This is because Democratic primaries typically give out delegates according to vote totals while the Republican primaries usually are winner-take-all contests. Even if Edwards manages victories in New York and California, those victories will probably be by small margins. Therefore, Edwards will make only a minimal gain in the all-important delegate race. In the Republican primaries, slight victories in these two states would result in a huge swing in the delegate total.